Tennessee Republicans have long enjoyed a political advantage, but a pair of closely watched congressional contests and an unconventional gubernatorial race are testing the state’s familiar political landscape ahead of the November midterm elections.
David Nir, founder of The Downballot, an independent political news site that tracks elections nationwide, said Republican candidates may be less prepared for competitive races than their electoral dominance suggests.
“Tennessee Republicans aren’t accustomed to challenging races against Democrats,” Nir said in an interview. “They usually expect to win in a walk.”
That expectation could prove costly in the newly redrawn 5th Congressional District, where Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, the Democratic nominee, is challenging Republican Charlie Hatcher, a former Tennessee agriculture commissioner.
Republicans redrew the district to make it more favorable to their party. It now stretches from the Memphis area to Nashville’s suburbs, creating a difficult path for Democrats. Still, Nir sees Molder as a candidate worth watching.
“This is a very difficult district for Democrats to flip, though they have a strong candidate in Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, so it’s still their best chance for a breakthrough,” Nir said.
An Impact Research poll conducted Sept. 28 through Oct. 1 among 552 likely voters found Hatcher leading Molder 46 percent to 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided. The survey, commissioned by Molder’s campaign, suggests the race could be competitive, although Hatcher retains the lead.
The race involving state Rep. Justin Pearson in Memphis is another contest shaped by redistricting. The new boundaries significantly alter the political landscape of the 9th Congressional District, which has been a Democratic stronghold for decades.
Nir sharply criticized the new map, saying Republicans had “surgically carved up Memphis’ Black community to try to deny Black residents the representation they deserve.” He said the district is now “very likely to flip to the GOP.”
A Hart Research Associates poll conducted Sept. 1-3 among 400 likely voters showed Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor leading Pearson 48 percent to 44 percent. The survey was sponsored by Tennessee Rise, a Democratic-aligned group. No newer public poll of the matchup was identified.
Nir said Republicans could be caught off guard when Democratic challengers make races more competitive than expected.
“If the GOP fumbles either of these two Tennessee seats away, a big part of it will be that they just weren’t prepared for real races against real opponents,” he said.
The governor’s race offers another unusual dynamic. Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn is seeking the governorship, while Democratic Memphis City Council member Jerri Green faces conservative independent David Hatley, who Nir said had self-funded at least $12 million.
“Even though Sen. Marsha Blackburn should be winning this one without breaking a sweat, her allies have spent serious money attacking Hatley,” Nir said.
Nir suggested that the contest between Blackburn and Hatley could create an opening for Green, though such an outcome would be a major upset.
“It would be an upset for the ages,” he said. “But if there’s a beneficiary of this fight, it would be Democrat Jerri Green.”
A Spry Strategies poll conducted Oct. 10-16 among 635 likely voters found Blackburn leading Green 43.5 percent to 32 percent, with Hatley at 11.9 percent and 10 percent undecided. The results give Blackburn a clear lead, but the independent candidacy remains a complicating factor in the race.
For Nir, the contests illustrate why Tennessee’s individual races deserve attention beyond the state’s overall Republican lean. Redistricting has reshaped the congressional playing field, while the candidates and campaigns will determine whether Democrats can make the most of their opportunities.
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