Could Texas go blue?
On the eve of the 2026 midterm elections, the local parties are making their last efforts to make it happen or prevent it.
There’s speculation over where redrawn congressional districts will land, the governor’s race and especially the race for U.S. Senate, in which the Texas Tribune reports Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in most polls.
Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since the mid-90’s, but the state has become a surprising battleground as money pours in, political ads fill screens and text messages bombard phones.
Early turnout statewide (40.6%) and in Bexar County (39.7%) has already exceeded the 2018 midterms, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke missed unseating U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) by less than 3 points.
Bexar County Democratic Party Chairwoman Michelle Lowe Solis thinks Tuesday will “be a good night for Democrats,” but tempered her predictions.
“We are feeling very cautiously optimistic about our chances for statewide. We feel very confident with our local Democrat elected and candidates. We feel cautiously optimistic about some of our congressional races as well,” she said.
“We’ve been here before,” she said when KSAT asked about her restraint, “and I think it’s important for all of us to realize that we can’t hope for a win; we have to work for a win.”
It’s a win Republicans don’t want to see happen.
Bexar County GOP Chairwoman Kris Coons acknowledged feeling “very anxious” heading into election day, given talk of a blue wave.
However, most of her concerns appeared focused on the reliably blue electorate of Bexar County, saying that even picking up a few percentage points could be a victory.
She said she’s feeling “solid” on three of the four congressional races, and “hopefully very optimistic” about the newly redrawn 35th Congressional District.
As for statewide races, Coons said she was feeling “very good” though “not overly confident.”
“I mean I think they’ve all done pretty solid jobs for the state,” she said, pointing to Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Commissioner of the General Land Office Dawn Buckingham —all of whom, except Paxton, are seeking reelection to their seats.
“I can’t imagine too many people would make a move, you know, on trying to switch that strictly just for party,” Coons said.
Neither party is leaving it up to chance, though, and are working to turn out their supporters through a combination of calls, texts and block walking.
“That is everything,” Coons said of Republican efforts to get voters to the polls, and Lowe Solis estimated the key to victory for her party will be to get at least 60% Democratic turnout across the state.
There’s little time at this point to sway voters, but KSAT asked for both chairwomen to make a pitch.
“We are at a crucial time in our country — very crucial. I mean, do you see yourself flipping with to more socialized everything?” Coons said, while advocating for capitalism, a strong military, “choice of your medical procedure,” and belief in American exceptionalism.
Lowe Solis, meanwhile, invoked gas, grocery and rent prices.
“Every lever of power in this county and in the state is run by Republicans. And if you don’t like what’s going on, you need to vote, and you need vote Democratic up and down the ballot,” she said.
Bexar County voters can vote at any county polling location on Tuesday between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m.
You can find more information on where to vote on KSAT.
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